Chicago Passes $11.65 Billion Budget as 2021 Concerns Loom

The city is taking all those savings in one year, rather than spreading it out over several years. This planned refunding that seeks to “realize disproportionate savings in the short-run” is “an unsustainable budgetary practice that should be avoided,” Matt Fabian, partner at Municipal Market Analytics, said in an emailed report.

Fabian also warned that Chicago’s task of balancing budgets in upcoming years, including 2021, may pose challenges.

“A failure to raise taxes now, while the local economy is reasonably strong, raises the risk of an eventual hike being proposed when growth is weaker or even negative: a very hard environment to present recurring budget solutions,” Fabian said in his report

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/chicago-passes-11-65-billion-budget-as-2021-concerns-loom-1.1353919

Muni Bonds Contain New Fine Print: Beware of Climate Change

When state and local governments issue debt, federal securities laws hold their bankers accountable for making sure that states and cities adequately disclose the risks bond buyers are taking on. These might include any lawsuits a town is facing, or how the sales taxes used to pay back bondholders could fluctuate in a recession. Now many of these documents include language about climate change, hurricane risks, and rising seas. “Every bank should be asking their clients about this risk,” says Christopher Hamel, a senior fellow at Municipal Market Analytics and former head of municipal finance at RBC Capital Markets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-05/how-serious-is-the-climate-change-risk-ask-a-banker

Muni-Bond Desks Stand to See Big Wins If Trump Loses

Democrats’ plans for new social programs could provide a boost to state and local governments’ finances as well, said Matt Fabian, a partner at research firm Municipal Market Analytics. States could use the help: federal grants for services like transportation and education stand at the lowest level as a percentage of the economy since 1989, according to a 2018 report by the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

“The wealth tax is likely to expand federal spending, which would take some of the burden off of state and local spending,” Fabian said. But, he added: “We’re still a long way from talking about it to actually implementing it.”

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/muni-bond-desks-wins/2019/10/31/id/939599/

What Climate Change Could Do to Cities' Power to Borrow Money

Municipal bonds are considered a conservative investment, with a current default rate of around 0.3 percent, according to Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics. To date, the bond market has done little to reflect that the risk may be increasing.

“There is almost no impact on muni bond prices with respect to climate change vulnerabilities. Prices do not acknowledge the risk in climate change,” he said. “Most investors believe that [climate change] is going to start affecting the market right after their own bonds mature.”

As more investors and firms study the risks, however, that might change.

“We are about a year away from climate change beginning to affect the muni market—a little,” Fabian said. “Changes on the investor side are going to happen first, [credit] ratings will come second, and issuer behavior will be a distant third.”

https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/climate-change-could-make-borrowing-costlier-states-and-cities/599464/

Popular in Wisconsin: Cheese, the Packers and...Risky Bonds

The agency’s bonds have been the subject of 10 of the 105 reports of impairment in the municipal market so far this year, according to research firm Municipal Market Analytics, by far the highest of any issuer.

“The PFA is producing some of the riskiest debt in the municipal market,” said MMA partner Matt Fabian. Impairments can range from having to rely on reserves to default.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/popular-in-wisconsin-cheese-the-packers-and-risky-bonds-11569922203?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1

Muni-Bond Investors Embrace Higher-Risk Issuers

High-yield municipal funds rake in $14 billion as investors flock to lower-rated deals

The sale of riskier new bonds, combined with the deterioration of some existing debt, has increased the amount of junk-rated and unrated debt outstanding by 20% since 2012, according to Municipal Market Analytics and the Federal Reserve.

It remains a small slice, about 9%, of the $4 trillion muni-bond market, according to MMA and Fed data. But high-yield municipal funds have attracted more money in the year to August than in any other year on record, drawing $14 billion, according to Refinitiv data going back to 1992.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/muni-bond-investors-embrace-higher-risk-issuers-11569073815

Distress Rises in Muni-Bond Market as More Borrowers Face Strain

Distress is rising in the $3.8 trillion municipal-bond market.

The number of borrowers reporting so-called impairments, such as a breach of the financial terms contained in the securities contracts, rose to 101 so far this year, up 41% from the same period in 2018, according to Municipal Market Analytics. At the same time, 33 skipped interest payments for the first time, compared with 21 a year earlier, though the size of the outstanding debt involved declined.

Sales of bonds by borrowers in the riskiest corner of the municipal market have increased in recent years as low interest rates leave investors...

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/distress-rises-in-muni-bond-market-as-more-borrowers-face-strain

Anything goes in today’s muni bond market

“It is a very aggressive market — but to say that it is frothy means that this is the end of it, and I don’t know,” said Matt Fabian, a partner with Municipal Market Analytics, an independent research firm. “A year from now, we might be yearning for the discipline of 2019.”

Some money managers have started to pull back. Vanguard Group Inc. has cautioned against taking too much risk as the economy’s record-long expansion makes a recession look overdue. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. earlier this year shifted a record amount of its high-yield municipal fund into investment grade debt, anticipating that some of the projects financed by the securities may run into distress.

https://finance-commerce.com/2019/08/anything-goes-in-todays-muni-bond-market/

PRASA deal on federal debt said to be mixed news for bondholders

PRASA has been in default on these loans for years, said Matt Fabian, partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Though the debt will be made “senior” equal to senior bonds, the senior debt service reserve account shall only secure the authority’s bonds.

In some ways the deal is step backward for bondholders in so far as it elevates the federal debt to the same level as the bond debt, Fabian said.

However, some bondholders may welcome it as a step in the right direction by bringing the restructuring of PRASA’s bonds closer, Fabian said. For many Puerto Rico bondholders, advancing the day when they can sell their newly restructured bonds is an important goal, he said. There has been an active audience for buying restructured Puerto Rico bonds.

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/news/story.jhtml?storyid=201908121634SM______BNDBUYER_0000016c-8759-d5b9-a77d-f77932d60000_110.1

This Bill Could Save Rural Governments Millions in Infrastructure Financing

But only small governments that issue $10 million or less in bonds per calendar year can sell bank-qualified debt. In today's dollars, $10 million doesn’t go very far. “Over the years, there’s been a steadily shrinking universe of governments who are benefitting from the rules,” says Municipal Market Analytics partner Matt Fabian.

https://www.governing.com/week-in-finance/gov-rural-governments-infrastructure-financing-congress.html

45-cent gas tax? Less dumb than GOP's road funding plan

Matt Fabian,a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, told government finance trade publication Bond Buyer that he's neg on this plan: "Pension bonds undertaken to do things not related to pensions are the worst kind of pension bonds in that they are being deployed almost purely as a budget gimmick, adding leverage and risk to a government’s budget in exchange for a few years’ relief from tax hikes or spending cuts."

Fabian also suggested that an interest in selling pension bonds for this purpose suggested some unpleasant things about the state's financial outlook: that there could be problems with Michigan's financial flexibility, and future credit outlook — in other words, a financially healthy state shouldn't consider such a convoluted financial transaction.

https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/columnists/nancy-kaffer/2019/07/12/explainer-michigan-fix-roads-gas-tax/1691488001/

Trump’s Immigration Policy Shows Why Jails Are Risky Investments

Investing in jails and detention centers is one of the riskiest bets in the $3.8 trillion municipal bond market because they’re subject to the vagaries of politics and policymakers. According to research firm Municipal Market Analytics, jail bonds are among the most likely to go into default.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/trump-s-immigration-policy-has-made-jails-risky-investments

Buyer Beware of States With a High Number of Muni Bankruptcies

Municipal bankruptcies are so rare that bondholders scour each for potential precedents. But they’re far more common in some states than others, according to data from Municipal Market Analytics Inc.

Of the 94 filed since 2007, California saw 16, the second most, MMA figures show. That’s understandable given the most populous U.S. state’s dominance among bond issuers in the $3.8 trillion market and its permissive attitude to such filings, which included the cities of Vallejo, Stockton and San Bernardino.

“An investor has to assume an elevated risk of restructuring,” he said.

Fabian isn’t recommending avoiding debt from the high-bankruptcy states. But he suggests investors demand more in return for the risk, if possible in a market where yields are very low. He also said they should be prepared to do more surveillance on the bond issuer after buying its debt and insist on more disclosures than is typically required beforehand.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/states-municipal-bankruptcies-buyers/2019/06/14/id/920458/

The risky business of chasing high-yield muni bonds

The downside, though, is that if enough of these risky municipal projects default, those attractive yields will quickly reverse.

About 2.5% of non-investment-grade munis are currently in default, according to Municipal Market Analytics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-risky-business-of-chasing-highyield-muni-bonds-185633139.html

NFMA ANNOUNCES ANNUAL AWARDS AT 36TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE

The Industry Contribution Award is given to an individual or organization that provides positive influence on the market to increase transparency or promote market effectiveness.  The 2019 award recipient, Matt Fabian, has been a diligent researcher and steady commentator on distressed issuers, creating a bully pulpit to ensure that the voice of the market is heard not just on high profile issues like Puerto Rico and Detroit, but many that fall under the radar like Platte County, Missouri. From the Bond Buyer to CBS News and the New York Times, Mr. Fabian is often sought for comments.  In a recent Times article on Puerto Rico’s lawsuits against financial institutions involved in their debt program, he stated that the institutions being sued were the same ones that Puerto Rico would seek assistance from in the future, succinctly asking “How do you sue? It’s like going in for a root canal and suing the dentist while you’re still in the chair.”

Matt Fabian is a partner at Municipal Market Analytics (MMA) where he leads market and credit research. Mr. Fabian is the lead contributor MMA’s weekly Municipal Outlook and biweekly Municipal Default Trends. His expansive knowledge of the idiosyncratic characteristics of the municipal market has made him one of the primary voices of the industry. Prior to MMA in 2015, Mr. Fabian served in a similar capacity at Municipal Market Advisors since 2006.Mr. Fabian has also served as lead municipal research analyst for UBS and UBS Wealth Management Research and earlier in his career was an underwriting analyst at FSA, and a municipal rating analyst with Moody’s Investors Service. Mr. Fabian has served as Chairman of the Municipal Analysts Group of New York (MAGNY) and was on the Board of Governors of the NFMA.

https://www.nfma.org/

Puerto Rico Seeks to Have $9 Billion in Debt Ruled Unconstitutional

Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, a research firm that is not involved in the litigation, said he thought the lawsuits would make it harder for Puerto Rico to negotiate with its creditors. In some cases, he said, the institutions being sued were the same ones that Puerto Rico would seek assistance from in the future, once the current restructuring is finished and the island needs to issue new debt.

Citibank, one defendant, is working as an adviser to the oversight board on the debt restructuring. “How do you sue?” Mr. Fabian asked. “It’s like going in for a root canal and suing the dentist while you’re still in the chair.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/puerto-rico-debt-banks.html

N.J. joins the parade as states test mileage-based fees

Lisa Washburn, managing director at Municipal Market Analytics, noted that future prospects for gas taxes as the main driver for transportation funding are dim because of increased electric and hybrid vehicle use coupled with many politicians reluctant to raise rates. The federal tax rate has not been raised since 1993 and while President Trump endorsed a 25-centfuel hike last year for his proposed $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill, congressional republicans quickly balked at the idea.

“There are a lot or negative views of the gas tax and that makes it hard to raise frequently to address infrastructure needs,” Washburn said. “It’s like a third rail tax.”

Washburn said the mileage-use fee is an idea that has potential to work in northeast states such as New Jersey if drivers can see linkages between their vehicle usage and the importance of improving the roadways on which they travel. Some possible complications would need to be addressed, according to Washburn, such as how to determine mileage-fee program credits for gas taxes and making sure that those with more fuel-efficient or electric vehicles don’t get adversely affected from the change. She added that assurances about privacy concerns with data collected would also be important, especially with trying to attract older participants.

“Looking for an alternative to the gas tax for funding infrastructure is very important,” Washburn said. “We have to find innovative ways to fund infrastructure and this certainly could be a very good way to shore up and make more sustainable revenues for infrastructure.”

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/news/story.jhtml?storyid=201904121147SM______BNDBUYER_0000016a-11bd-d1f4-ab6b-53bdad380000_110.1

Where climate analysis meets municipal bond analysis

A climate analytics business is partnering with a municipal bond research firm in an effort to get a better handle on the risk climate change creates for municipal debt.

“Climate change is a burning fuse and no one knows how fast it is burning and where the explosives are,” said Thomas Doe, president of Municipal Market Analytics. “Market participants are beginning to assess how to incorporate that into their decision making.”

https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/mma-pairs-with-risq-to-gauge-climate-risk-to-municipal-bond-debt

Troubled Municipal Borrowers Can’t Hide From Matt Fabian

The $3.8 trillion U.S. municipal bond market is home to more than 50,000 individual issuers. That’s almost 10 times the number of corporations that sell debt. Yet muni issuers, which range from a tiny California school district to an economic powerhouse such as New York City, aren’t beholden to the same reporting requirements that companies must follow. Matt Fabian, a partner at Concord, Mass.-based research firm Municipal Market Analytics Inc., scours their often haphazard filings for signs of troubled borrowers. His database tracks events such as issuers dipping into reserves or skipping payments, informing his weekly reports to clients.

This labor-intensive undertaking has yielded surprising insights into where defaults cluster and may offer investors a road map. Fabian, based in Westport, Conn., joined MMA in 2006 after working at a ratings company, bond insurer, and investment bank. Here, he talks about his process, his bleak outlook for the U.S., and the implications for investors.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/troubled-municipal-borrowers-can-t-hide-from-matt-fabian-1.1238862

Preston Hollow v. Nuveen breaks open high-yield muni world

Preston Hollow lays out its claims in eye-popping detail. It accuses Nuveen of unlawful and strong-arm tactics in its effort to thwart its business opportunities by wielding its power and cash to run interference with broker-dealers. The firm takes on not just Nuveen but its prominent head of municipals, John Miller.

“This comes at a time when there is intense competition for product and so this is reflective of the competition that exists in the industry,” Thomas Doe, president of Municipal Market Analytics, said of conflicts laid out in the litigation. “You are fighting for any product and any opportunity you can find.”

Does the case drive a change in market behavior or is it one-off dispute between two firms? “It’s too early to tell,” Doe said.

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/news/story.jhtml?storyid=201903151106SM______BNDBUYER_00000169-7c92-d680-a1fb-fcdef2700000_110.1